Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough query to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a team who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
